EA Description

This is something I always keep in mind when developing, not just with this EA, but with the understanding that even if you fiddle around with a lot of strange indicators to improve the superficial BT performance, it will not work at all in real life. I try to develop EAs that are based only on simple logic whose basis I can understand with my own head.

This EA constantly monitors the increase in volatility and thoroughly aims to falsely increase or fall when a trend occurs.

In the market, sometimes due to various factors, fluctuations occur temporarily against the original flow. However, in most cases, these are temporary and do not cause a trend reversal.

The reason why this false upward movement and false downward movement when a trend occurs is effective is that when the price reverts, the profits of the positions that were falsely manipulated are realised, and orders from algorithms and general participants to buy on dips and sell on rallies come in, which in turn involves cut-losses of positions that were fooled by the false upward movement and downward movement, strengthening the trend and returning to the original flow.

This EA will thoroughly target only this chart pattern.

Take profit and stop loss

As for taking profits, when the limit of movement is reached or when profits are gradually increasing, profits are locked in using a trailing stop.

Unfortunately, if you enter a trade expecting it to be a false positive, but the trend turns around, you will have to stop your losses. The stop loss is designed to be set at a point where the damage is minimized as much as possible by taking profits, but in rare cases where the trend turns around, the stop loss will be set at the point where SL=100pips is reached.

The data speaks for itself

This EA only uses three indicators and has not been optimized to make its performance look better, but over the 22 years from 2000 to 2022, it has the logic to continue to update the highest account balance while absorbing 1 pip of spread fee, leaving an expected value of +2.4 pips (PF=1.47, 3.4 pips per trade minus 1 pip of spread).

However, there are some markets that this EA does not do well in.

However, this does not mean that you can win in any market. As with any EA, there are markets that this EA is not good at.

I could filter it out, but doing so would not have helped me in the future and would only have made the logic less robust, so I decided to accept defeat.

Please look at the profit and loss by year above. This year is a recovery, but we can see that 2019-2021 was a losing (2019) or low profit period.

As for what these were like,

Those who have been trading FX since around this time will remember the yellow period, but this was a time of historically low volatility, unstable direction, and fluctuating around 110 yen as if it was convenient for adults. During these times, the rate at which this EA got the wrong direction increased and the results were not good, but due to the recent widening interest rate gap and instability in the global situation, it is highly likely that the trend of a weak yen and high volatility will continue for a while, and we believe that the market that this EA excels in will continue.