Рейтинг форекс-советников по форвард-результатам

The composite score is computed mechanically from measured values only. The formulas below are exactly what runs on this site.

Inputs

• PF = gross profit / gross loss
• RF = net profit / max drawdown
• T = total trades, L = losing trades
• R = trades closed in the last 180 days
• M = max concurrent positions

1. Track-record reliability w

w = min( 1 − exp( −T / 80 ) , L / ( L + 10 ) )

The lower of the two sides is used. Trade-count side: T=47 gives 0.44, 200 gives 0.92, 1,000 gives 1.00. Loss-count side: L=10 gives 0.50, 40 gives 0.80.

2. Reliability adjustment

PF′ = 1 + ( PF − 1 ) × w　(clamped to 0–20)
RF′ = RF × w

The fewer the trades, the closer PF is pulled to 1.0 (neutral) and RF to 0. EAs whose max drawdown cannot be measured are treated as RF = 1.0 (neutral).

3. Soft cap

cap( x , c ) = x / ( 1 + x / c )
PF″ = cap( PF′ , 5.0 )　　RF″ = cap( RF′ , 3.0 )

PF is capped toward 5.0 and RF toward 3.0 so that a single extreme figure cannot decide the ranking.

4. Activity coefficient A and position coefficient P

A = 0.70 + 0.30 × ( 1 − exp( −R / 10 ) )
P = 1 / ( 1 + ( M − 1 ) × 0.03 )　(P = 1 when M ≤ 1)

With no trades in the last 180 days A = 0.70; 10 trades gives 0.89 and 30 gives 0.99. For concurrent positions, M=5 gives 0.89 and M=10 gives 0.79.

5. Composite score (0–10)

raw = PF″ × RF″ × A × P
score = 10 × ( 1 − exp( −raw / 2.3 ) )　(rounded to 1 decimal)

8.0+ is S, 6.0+ is A, 4.0+ is B, 2.0+ is C, below that is D.

Worked example

PF=1.50　RF=3.00　T=200　L=40　R=30　M=1
w = min( 0.918 , 0.800 ) = 0.800
PF′ = 1.400　　RF′ = 2.400
PF″ = 1.094　　RF″ = 1.333
A = 0.985　　P = 1.000
raw = 1.094 × 1.333 × 0.985 ≒ 1.437
score = 10 × ( 1 − exp( −1.437 / 2.3 ) ) = 4.6 (B)

Max drawdown is the largest floating loss (for EAs where it cannot be measured, the largest single realised loss is used instead). The ranking lists EAs that are on sale, have closed at least one trade in the last 3 months, and have 20 or more trades in total. The composite score is our own metric for comparing EAs with each other and does not guarantee future returns.